There's only a few teams that who are vying for the overall podium, from there, we can create the "short list" of who could finish third.
Here's who I think could finish third, and a little blurb about why they are on my list.
(If you don't want to read my line of baloney, you can scroll to the bottom of this post for my short list)
Team Sky has three potential 3rd place finishers:
Chris Froome
Ritchie Porte
Leopold Konig
Yes, Chris Froome is pegged to win the overall. But I'm not sure the course favors him due to the lack of CLM (that's time trialing if you didn't know) kilometers. He could finish first, but his rivals would love to push him down the podium if possible. One bad day in the mountains...
Ritchie Porte is the loyal lieutenant to Froome. He will be the last line of defence on the mountain stages pacing Froome to the top. Being that close to the front at the end, surely puts him in the running.
Leopold Konig was a revelation at last years tour. He can climb, he can CLM. It was surprising to me in the off season when he chose to go to Team Sky, where his talents will be reduced to a supporting role to Froome. Any team would have been happy to have this talented rider. He's worth putting on the list because if Froome and Porte falter, he is strong enough to make the podium.
Team Tinkoff Saxo also has three potential 3rd place finishers:
Alberto Contador
Rafal Majka
Roman Kreuziger
Like Froome, Contador is on the short list for the overall title. He's trying for the Giro/Tour double which hasn't happened since "Il Pirata" did it in 1998. Perhaps having that many miles in his legs will keep him from the top step.
Rafal Majka save the tour last year for Tinkoff Saxo. When Contador broke his leg, the team needed to salvage the tour and Majka delivered them stage wins. He proved his prowess on the climbs and limited his losses in the CLMs. If Contador falters again, Majka could once again step in.
Roman Kreuziger has been a stalwart for the team. Always consistent strong all arounder. He's had a quiet start to the year. He rode the Giro and finished 28th. While were on the subject of the Giro, Contador did not seem to have a team around him in the final moments of the mountain stages. Is the perhaps because his team is/was saving it's strength for the tour? If that's the case, then Kreuziger is well rested and possibly in form. He finished 5th in 2013, which means he can hang with the best of them.
Another team floating a trio of GC contenders is Cannondale Garmin:
Andrew Talansky
Ryder Hesjedal
Daniel Martin
Talansky was tipped as the team leader last year. This year he's not labelled as such which could help him. He looked good, but not great in the Dauphine. Perhaps he was sandbagging a little. If that's the case, then I would expect him to be in top form by the time the mountains roll around in the tour.
Hesjedal is worth a mention because of his spectacular last week of climbing at the Giro. He wasn't even part of the Cannondale-Garmin short list in the run up to the Tour until recently. Perhaps his training in June impressed enough do get him onto the tour team. His mention as a co-leader with Talansky I think is more game playing than reality. He's there to support Talansky I think. But if Talansky falters, then Cannondale has the Hesjedal card to play.
And speaking of cards to play, Daniel Martin is always a threat to the top 10 of any grand tour. It seems to me, he always has his best form late in the year at the Vuelta. I haven't kept up with him this spring, but if he changed his training to peak in July, he's a definite threat.
Movistar as a couple of real contenders:
Nairo Quintana
Alejandro Valverde
"F**king Quintana, that creep can roll." An angel in the mountains, Quintana finished third two years ago and won the Giro last year. With the amount of climbing in this years tour, don't be surprised to find him at the front, off the front and winning a stage or two. Can he take the overall? Maybe, but I think he's a shoe in for 3rd. Put this one high on your short list for sure.
Valverde is always buzzing around the front of the peloton. He's already stated he's in a support role for Quintana, but you never know what's going to happen on the road.
Astana is putting all the eggs in one basket:
Vincenzo Nibali.
Another favorite for the overall, Nibali has the full support of his team. No leadership shared here. It's a crowded field with Froome and Contador being mentioned in the same breath for the overall. And Nibali did win last year with a very large lead over 2nd. However, one bad day could find himself fighting for third.
Another team with a single leader is BMC:
Tejay Van Garderen
Tejay looked great at the Dauphine. He's been putting all his energy into training for the Tour de France. He is ready and pumped. Two things make him one of the strongest candidates to finish third. 1) By his own admission, his goal is the podium. While the top step is part of the podium, it sounds to me as if he's hedging his bets to call his tour successful if the lands on the 3rd step. 2) Tejay, in my opinion, will never win the Tour. It's a tough thing to say since I'm a die hard Team BMC fan and would love to see the black and red of BMC standing on the top step on the Champs Elysees. Tejay is a big engine that chugs along on any terrain, he's not explosive by any stretch, and it seems to be something you need to win the Tour. Granted his former teammate Cadel Evans was the same way, and did win one tour. Cadel finished 2nd and 3rd many more times than he won.
Etixx-Quick Step does have a dark horse in the race:
Rigoberto Uran Uran
So which is it? One Uran or two? I like two, using my fake Spanish accent I like rolling my r's twice. Like a cat purring...
Uran has an outside chance. All he has to do is limit his losses on the cobbles and in the TTT, and hold the wheels in the mountains. With any luck, he won't be perceived as a threat and could be let free on a mountain or two and find himself on the podium in Paris.
His biggest downfall will be his lack of team support. Etixx- Quick Step is built around Mark Cavendish winning stages. Looking at the team roster, there is no one there to really help him in the mountains.
The road to the French renaissance goes straight thought AG2R La Mondiale:
Jean Christophe Peraud
Romain Bardet
Last years 2nd place, J C Peraud has stated that he's too old to win the tour, but his early season says he could finish on the podium again. He's not too far off on form and could be there at the end.
Romain Bardet lit up stage 5 of the Dauphine this year and looks well on his way to excellent form for the Tour this year. He is listed as the team captain for AG2R which means Peraud may be regulated to a helper role.
FDJ has just one to contribute to the pool:
Thibaut Pinot
Pinot finished third last season which makes him another front runner. After watching him tear up the mountains in the Tour de Suisse I know he's ready for the hardest climbs in this years tour. If he can limit his losses on the cobbles and the TTT, he should be in the fray at the end.
Lampre-Merida contributes one:
Rui Costa
Costa is always a dark horse in the race. A horse that always seems to fade. Again this year, he did well at the Tour de Suisse. Will he be in the top 10 let alone the top 3? There's always a chance.
LottoNL-Jumbo has two possible podium contenders:
Steven Kruijswijk
Robert Gesink
Kruijswijk was a revelation at the Giro this year. It seems as though he was in cahoots with Contador against the Astana machine. If he's regained the his energy from over the last month, and the peloton gives him a little bit of leeway in the mountains, he could be on the podium. He is one to watch for the future as well.
Gesink has shown good form this year but always seems to run out of gas in the early mountain stages at the tour. Contender for 3rd, maybe...
Team Europcar:
Pierre Rolland
Rolland has had a good early season which could be great build up to the Tour. He's been on the cusp of greatness for a few years now. Third is not an unreal finish for him.
Team Katusha:
Joaquim Rodriguez
Rodriguez has finished 3rd in the past and could again. Looking at his team roster, it's possible he may have no support in the mountains since half the team seems to be built around Alexander Kristoff winning sprint stages. Rodriguez will have to look for his opportunities and take them when he can to get on the podium.
Trek Factory Racing has a real contender this year:
Bauke Mollema
Mollema moved over to Trek Factory Racing because he would be the undisputed leader of the team at the Tour, something Trek has been missing the past few years. The Schlecks never returned to their early form and the quick retirement of Andy left a real hole. Mollema has strong support in the mountains with Haimar Zubeldia and Markel Irizar to pace him and one of the greatest rolleurs the sport has ever seen in Gregory Rast to block wind on the flats. Mollema could be on the podium in Paris if the stars align.
Here's the condensed list if you didn't want to read my fluff:
Chris Froome - Team Sky
Ritchie Porte - Team Sky
Leopold Konig - Team Sky
Alberto Contador - Team Tinkoff Saxo
Rafal Majka - Team Tinkoff Saxo
Roman Kreuziger - Team Tinkoff Saxo
Andrew Talansky- Team Cannondale Garmin
Ryder Hesjedal- Team Cannondale Garmin
Daniel Martin- Team Cannondale Garmin
Nairo Quintana- Movistar
Alejandro Valverde- Movistar
Vincenzo Nibali- Astana
Tejay Van Garderen- Team BMC
Rigoberto Uran Uran- Etixx - Quick Step
Jean Christophe Peraud- AG2R La Mondiale
Romain Bardet- AG2R La Mondiale
Thibaut Pinot - FDJ
Rui Costa - Lampre Merida
Steven Kruijswijk - LottoNL - Jumbo
Robert Gesink - LottoNL - Jumbo
Pierre Rolland - Team Europcar
Joaquim Rodriguez - Team Katusha
Bauke Mollema - Trek Factory Racing
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